November 19, 2009

State Attorney General Jerry Brown is the only major Democrat still running for governor of California next year, and now he’s tied with Republican hopeful Meg Whitman at 41% each in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.
 
Three percent (3%) of California voters favor some other gubernatorial candidate, and 14% are undecided.
 
In late September, Brown was ahead 44% to 35% in a hypothetical match-up with former eBay executive Whitman.
 
Brown still runs ahead of two other potential GOP candidates for governor, State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Tom Campbell, an ex-congressman and former state finance director.
 
In a match-up with Poizner, Brown wins by 11 points – 43% to 32%, roughly the same margin as in the previous survey. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, but 18% are not sure whom they’ll support.
 
Brown holds a nine-point lead over Campbell – 42% to 33% - with six percent (6%) behind some other candidate and 19% not sure. This, too, marks little change from September.
 
What has changed is that San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination last month. In the September survey, all three Republicans had modest leads over Newsom.
 
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited by law and cannot seek reelection next year. Perhaps it’s just as well since only 29% of California voters now approve of Schwarzenegger’s job performance, including six percent (6%) who strongly approve. But 69% disapprove of how he is handling his job, with 30% who strongly disapprove.
 
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters in the state have a very favorable opinion of Brown, who previously served as governor from 1975 to 1983. He is not covered by the term limits law since it did not go into effect until 1990. Thirty percent (30%), however, view him very unfavorably.
 
Whitman is viewed very favorably by 16% and very unfavorably by 10%.
 
Poizner’s very favorables are seven percent (7%), his very unfavorables six percent (6%). For Campbell, very favorables total 13% and very unfavorables seven percent (7%).
 
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
 
But all three Republican candidates have name-recognition problems to work on in the months ahead. Just 11% know so little about Brown, an active player in state politics for nearly 40 years, that they don’t even venture a soft opinion of him. By contrast, 26% are not sure what they think of Whitman, and nearly 40% say the same of both Poizner and Campbell.